What China is aiming for, according to Rudd, in its “great rejuvenation” is a strong China – militarily, economically, politically, diplomatically, and technologically, a “civilized China” based on the principles of “equity, fairness, morality and cultural development” … a beautiful China with environmental sustainability at its core.

No one could object to that, but nevertheless, human rights, electoral democracy and an independent judiciary are alien to the Chinese tradition. Rudd remarks there is now a conflict between two competing world views, one based on the principles and institutions of liberal democracy, capitalism and ultimately anchored in the geostrategic power of the USA. The other is the ideology of Marxist Leninism authoritarian governance and the driving force of Chinese nationalism.

This competition has generated discussion of the Thucydides Trap, whereby an ascendant power and a descending power go to war to determine mastery. An example would be the Franco Prussian war of 1890 which was brought about by Prussian maneuvering to establish Germany as the strongest state in Europe, which it did.

Nobody has any doubt that the US is now the descending power. Rudd, however, has a qualification to make. He identifies “a big contradiction” in the Chinese system, which is the political control it is now imposing on the economy, even to the extent of placing party secretaries inside companies. That, argues Rudd, risks killing the goose which lays the golden eggs. Rudd comments that in many respects the greatest asset the Chinese Communist Party possesses is its ability to bluff the rest of the world into believing that China is much bigger, more powerful and more financially solvent than it really is.

There is, writes Rudd, “a ticking time bomb within the Chinese financial system” [p.351] which is fueled by debt driven growth which endangers bank liquidity. One recalls huge bankruptcies which occasionally make the news. And China has a vast informal banking system which is not completely under government control.

However, a collapse of the Chinese banking system might not make us more secure. It might make us less so if their government were to use military means to rally support. So one can see the merits in Rudd’s suggestions about how to reduce the danger from flash points. The measures he recommends, are, first, both sides could abstain from cyber- attacks targeting critical infrastructure. Second, Washington could strictly adhere to the one China policy, especially by ending the provocative high-level visits to Taipei. For its part, Beijing could scale down its maneuvers in the Taiwan Strait. Third, China could undertake not to reclaim or militarise more islands in the South China Sea. Fourth, The US and its allies could then, and only then, reduce the number of operations they carry out in that area. Fifth, China and Japan could cut deployments in the East China sea where the disputed Senkaku Island is located.

Rudd insists on physical verification for these moves. That is because many in the US national security community believe that the Chinese Communist Party has no qualms about lying or hiding its true intentions in order to deceive adversaries. Apparently, that is because the Chinese Communist Party has the view that the shabby treatment China received prior to its takeover justifies deception.

This book makes a valuable contribution to peace.

Reg Naulty,  Canberra and Region Quakers.

Published by Hachette Australia.2022. pp.418 $34.94 ISBN 978 0 7336 4850 [paperback]